One of the last comic strips of Tom Fishburne (Marketoonist) reminded me of an old custom in the digital world (it happens in many areas, but because of the speed of the Internet, its recurrence is much greater).
Every so often an innovation emerges that quickly becomes a trend and that from talking so much about it seems to be something real and applicable. And in certain cases a bubble is generated that ends up exploding and leaving room for the next trend. #Chief Technology Officer Email List
These are trends that can take a long time or little time to evolve, but when they find their moment they grow in an unstoppable way. Sometimes they are real fiascos, and in others we talk about things with a lot of sense and transcendence, but that are still far from being a reality.
Blockchain – Marketoonist
The comic strip talks about blockchain, because of the bubble that is being generated around bitcoin and its numerous applications (this is not an article against blockchain, which has an impressive future, but against the bubbles that are generated around new technologies) , but I could talk about many other things.
I like the approach of Mark Ritson in one of the articles on trends for 2018 typical of these dates. It is true that he has plenty of sarcasm and irony, but he is still right.
When I talk about trends I like to think about the ways in which we could apply them to a marketing strategy to try to lower them to reality. It is a way of taking the good of each one of them and starting the path that leads us to that future of which they speak in articles and conferences.
This has made me reflect on the curve of adoption of the innovations on which I usually base when dealing with these topics. Curve adoption of innovations or technologies
What happens before the jump of the abyss before the technology consolidates? What makes me jump?
In my opinion in the first two stages there are two currents that try to bring it to market. The one of those who are really working on developing the new technology and the media noise that sometimes catapults it and in others it sinks. In the end it is the degree of acceptance of the market that marks the success or failure, but sometimes technology dies before this happens.
Behind this second stream we have everything: from well-informed professionals to mere speculators, to people trying to get on the innovation bandwagon without having much idea of what it really implies.
This is what the consultant Gartner defined as hype cycle (something that is usually named, but I have rarely read with a serious definition). This cycle represents the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. And he describes it in five phases:
Technological trigger: the arrival of a potential technological advance starts the cycle. Soon the first positive concept tests arrive and this attracts the interest of the technological media. Normally there are still no commercially viable products. In this stage you can find blockchain, chatbots (they already work, but they are in a very initial phase), artificial intelligence, etc.
Peak of inflated expectations: technology begins to appear in the mass media, it seems that everything will go through that technology. Success cases are combined with failures and the first negative voices are heard.
Disappointment or depression (trough of disillusionment): with the arrival of reality, or rather, when comparing such high expectations with reality, comes the disappointment that puts technology at its minimum.
Beginning of the consolidation (slope of enlightenment): to have the technology an intrinsic value, continues its path and begins to mature. The first realistic applications appear and the market finally understands what it can be used for.
Productivity (plateau of productivity): technology is consolidated in the market and applied to what it does best.